N123SB

HISTORY OF FLIGHTOn April 7, 2017, about 1048 Pacific daylight time, a Piper PA-46-310P, N123SB, was destroyed when it impacted terrain near Harrisburg, Oregon, during an instrument approach to Mahlon Sweet Field Airport (EUG), Eugene, Oregon. The pilot and three passengers were fatally injured. The airplane was registered to and operated by Park City Aviation, LLC under the provisions of Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91. Instrument meteorological conditions prevailed and an instrument flight rules flight plan was filed for the personal flight, which originated from Van Nuys Airport (VNY), Van Nuys, California, at 0727.

Data from an onboard Appareo Stratus 2S indicated that the airplane took off from VNY at 0721:37 and leveled off at its cruise altitude of 14,200 ft GPS altitude on a generally direct route toward EUG.

At 1019, the pilot began a descent consistent with arrival in the EUG terminal area. During the approach to EUG, the pilot was in radar contact with the Cascade Approach/Eugene Tower control facility. Review of air traffic control communications revealed that, at 1038:24, the controller instructed the pilot to descend to 4,000 ft mean sea level (msl) and to expect the ILS RWY16L approach. About two minutes later, the controller advised the pilot of an area of moderate to heavy precipitation at his 11-to-2'o-clock position. He asked the pilot to verify that he had received the current weather observation at the airport; the pilot confirmed that he had. Shortly thereafter, the pilot reported that the airplane was in heavy precipitation and requested vectors to the localizer and a descent to 2,000 ft msl. By 10:43:48, the airplane passed east of EUG, descending through 3,573 ft as it was being vectored for the approach at EUG. At this time, the recorded pitch attitude was about 3.5° nose down. At 1045, Cascade Approach advised the pilot of heavy to extreme precipitation in the area. Between 1046:36 and 1047:04, the airplane turned west at an altitude about 1,870 ft, and the groundspeed changed from 144 knots to 75 knots. At 1047:41, the recorded pitch angle began to increase as the pilot began to turn left at an altitude of 1,923 ft. At 1047:49, the recorded left bank angle was 42° and the recorded pitch angle was 13.6° nose up, as the airplane turned through a heading of 205°. At 1047:56, the recorded left bank angle reached 95°, with a pitch attitude of 35° nose down. The airplane descended through 1,125 ft with a nose-down pitch attitude of 30° and a left bank angle of about 70°. Shortly thereafter, the airplane briefly rolled wings-level before entering a right roll. As the airplane continued to descend, the right bank increased to 173° and the pitch angle reached 66° nose-down. At 1048:12, the groundspeed decreased to 0, consistent with ground impact. At 1048:13, the controller advised the pilot to maintain 2,000 ft msl until he intercepted the glideslope and cleared him for the approach. The pilot acknowledged the clearance. About 13 seconds later, the controller requested that the pilot check his altitude and instructed him to climb and maintain 2,000 ft msl. The pilot did not respond. The controller then issued the pilot multiple low altitude alerts and attempted to contact him on guard frequency; there were no further communications from the accident airplane. (NOTED: slight time discrepancy between Appareo Stratus and ATC clocks)

A witness located about 1/2 mile from the accident site, heard a loud engine noise and observed the airplane flying above her house toward the north. A second later, the engine went completely quiet. She continued to watch the airplane as it descended before it disappeared from her sight behind a tree line.

Another witness, who was located about 1.2 miles from the accident site, observed the airplane flying in a northerly direction above the treetops. The airplane then entered a near-vertical nose dive and disappeared behind a tree line. PERSONNEL INFORMATIONThe pilot held a commercial pilot certificate with airplane single-engine land, multi-engine land, and instrument ratings. The pilot was issued a second-class Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) airman medical certificate on February 2, 2017, with the limitation that he must wear corrective lenses. On the application for that medical certificate, the pilot reported 5,025 total hours of flight experience of which 45 hours were in the previous six months. The pilot's digital logbook, dated February 8, 2017, indicated that he had accumulated a total of 5,060 flight hours, with about 163 hours in the accident airplane make and model, and 25 hours of instrument time in the preceding 6 months. His total instrument flight experience could not be determined. AIRCRAFT INFORMATIONThe six-seat, single-engine, low-wing, retractable landing gear airplane, serial number 46-8508023, was manufactured in 1984. It was powered by a Continental Motors, Inc., TSIO-520-BE2F reciprocating engine, serial number 273821-R, rated at 310 horsepower. The airplane was also equipped with a Hartzell two-bladed constant speed propeller, model F8052. A review of maintenance records showed that the most recent annual inspection was completed January 24, 2017, at a total aircraft time of 3,681.72 hours. METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATIONA National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) staff meteorologist prepared a factual report for the area and time surrounding the accident.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0917, predicting areas of general thunderstorms for the accident site during the day of the accident.

An Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) located at EUG reported at 1054 wind from 200° at 18 knots with gusts to 26 knots, 7 miles visibility, light rain, few clouds at 2,400 ft above ground level (agl), overcast ceiling at 3,500 ft agl, temperature 8°C, dew point 7°C, and an altimeter setting of 29.51 inches of mercury. The observations from EUG indicated that surface wind gusts to 35 knots were observed around the accident time with marginal visual flight rules (VFR) to VFR ceiling conditions.

A High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model sounding for the accident site at 1100 indicated a conditionally unstable environment from the surface through 4,500 ft msl, a possibility of low-level wind shear (LLWS) between the surface and 1,000 ft msl, and a possibility of clear-air turbulence in two layers between the surface and 9,000 ft msl.

Several pilot reports (PIREPs) were made near EUG around the time of the accident, which included base and top cloud information, LLWS on approach to Redmond, Oregon, and icing conditions above 6,000 ft; however, none of these PIREPs were given to the accident pilot, nor did the controller solicit a PIREP from the pilot during the approach.

The visible satellite data imagery indicated cloud cover above the accident site at the time of the accident, with cumuliform cloud cover moving from southwest to northeast. The clouds were expanding in coverage above the accident site at the time of the accident, consistent with rain shower growth and strong updrafts and downdrafts.

AIRMET advisories Sierra and Tango, issued for the area of the accident site at the time of the accident, warned of mountain obscuration conditions in clouds and precipitation, moderate turbulence below 16,000 ft msl, and LLWS conditions.

An area forecast issued at 0345 and valid at the time of the accident forecast a broken ceiling at 6,000 ft agl, with layered clouds through 24,000 ft, moderate rain, and a south wind gusting to 45 knots. A Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) issued at 0917 forecast wind from 180° at 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots, greater than 6 miles visibility, light rain showers, broken ceiling at 2,000 ft agl, and overcast skies at 5,000 ft agl. The 1020 TAF forecast wind from 180° at 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots, greater than 6 miles visibility, light rain showers, scattered clouds at 2,500 ft agl, broken ceiling at 3,500 ft agl, and overcast skies at 4,000 ft agl.

The local NWS Office in Portland, Oregon, issued a wind advisory at 0727 and valid through 1700, to warn of a south wind of 25 to 35 mph with gusts as high as 60 mph at the surface. A similar wind advisory was issued at 0240, warning of the gusty south winds between 0700 and 1700 for the accident site and the surrounding area.

The pilot obtained weather information through ForeFlight and Leidos graphics and texts at 0416 and 0417. In the ForeFlight graphical and text weather briefing, the pilot received AIRMETs Sierra and Tango. All were valid along the route or at the intended destination. The pilot also received the Area Forecast, the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, and the winds aloft forecast, with no urgent PIREPs along the route of flight before 0417. The 0354 surface observation at EUG included temperature 11°C, dew point 7°C, altimeter 29.92 inches of mercury, peak wind from 180° at 37 knots at 0357, rain ended at 0349, sea level pressure 891 hPa, and a one-hour precipitation total of 0.01in.

The pilot did not receive an official weather brief through Direct User Access Terminal Service (DUATS), voice Lockheed Martin Flight Service (LMFS) or Leidos. It is unknown if the accident pilot checked or received additional weather information before or during the accident flight.

Several hours after the accident, the NTSB investigator-in-charge (IIC) observed a 140-ft-by-150-ft area of disturbed, flattened tall grass located about 450 ft southwest of the accident site. That was the only area in the field where tall grass had been flattened. Images of the grass were provided to NWS personnel, who estimated that it would take greater than 35-knot winds to lay over tall grass as the images indicated. The NWS indicated that a microburst or bow echo type of outflow event could not be ruled out.

The complete weather report is in the public docket for this accident. AIRPORT INFORMATIONThe six-seat, si...